As the UK’s political parties campaign towards getting your vote tomorrow, migration is a key part of their election manifestos. The 2016 Vote Leave campaign was built around Britain taking back control of its borders, but in 2022 the UK saw a record high in net migration reaching 764,000. In a new study, academics from Brunel University London have investigated migration to the UK post-Brexit, as the small boats keep coming and lower-skilled jobs remain vacant.
Since the 2010 general election, the Conservative governments have aimed to bring down net migration “from the ‘hundreds of thousands’ to the ‘tens of thousands’”, but it remains a growing issue that government continues to grapple with.
In the lead-up to the 2016 EU referendum, it was the sense that the UK did not have control of migration flows which led to the Vote Leave campaign being built around the ‘take back control’ slogan. After the majority voted to leave the EU, the country officially entered Brexit and detached itself from the European Union.
In a new study, published by Brunel’s Centre for Law, Economics and Finance, Dr Matteo Pazzona, an expert in political economics from Brunel University London, investigated UK migration trends post-Brexit along with Brunel’s Dr Matilde Rosina, and Dr Federico Filauri from the University of London.
On 1 January 2021, following numerous post-Brexit discussions, the UK government finally adopted a new immigration policy. “The points-based immigration system means that migrants are granted access to work, study, and remain in the UK based on a score determined by parameters such as skills, language proficiency and whether they have family in the UK,” explained Dr Rosina, an expert in migration policy in Europe.
“The system does not differentiate between EU and non-EU migrants, and Europeans (with the exception of Irish citizens) are now forced to obtain a visa to study, work, or reside in the UK in a similar process to what was in place for non-EU migrants before Brexit.”
Contrary to expectations, the new points system saw migration to the UK rise to an historical high, peaking at 764,000 in 2022. In 2015, net migration to the UK was less than double this amount, totalling 333,000.
“Last year, net migration to the UK was 685,000, a decrease from its December 2022 all-time high, but almost 200,000 more compared to December 2021,” explained Dr Rosina.
“Dr Pazzona added: “More than 200,000 people were granted British citizenship last year, 15% more than in 2022 and a 20-year record high.
“Family-related visas also reached an all-time high, with 81,203 being granted, and a 72% increase from 2022,” he said.
Over the years, there has been a significant decrease in humanitarian visa grants, with almost half of last year’s 102,283 grants for Ukraine schemes.
The number of small boat arrivals last year totalled 29,437, which is a 36% decrease from 2021 due to a new cooperation agreement with Albania.
Work-related migration
Last year, 41% of people coming to the UK did so for work-related reasons, making it the first reason to migrate. The Department for Work and Pensions recorded more than 1.1 million new National Insurance number registrations from international workers last year, maintaining the 20-year record high reached in 2022.
Up until the Covid-19 pandemic outbreak in spring 2020, work-related migration to the UK was largely driven by EU nationals, but after the referendum EU worker migrants steadily declined, reaching 430,000 in March 2020.
Last year, non-EU nationals accounted for 91% of work-related migration to the UK, and just 9% were from the EU. The most represented European country was Romania (23,000), and the main countries of origin for international workers were India (280,000) and Nigeria (140,000).
The new migration policy has had a significant impact on the drastic reduction of EU work-migration, and the drop in new EU-workers. Together with the decision by a number of Europeans to leave the UK, this has negatively affected specific job sectors.
“The new immigration policy produced a shortfall of around 460,000 EU workers, which was only partially compensated for with around 130,000 non-EU workers,” said Dr Pazzona.
“Large shortfalls are seen in lower-skilled sectors, such as manufacturing, transport, construction, wholesale and retail and hospitality,” he added.
In higher-skilled sectors such as professional services and finance, non-EU workers have completely offset the loss of EU workers and have overcompensated the relatively small EU-workers shortfall in sectors such as technology and health.
Study-related migration
Last year, the Home Office reported 34% of UK immigration as study-related, making it the second reason to migrate.
Tuition fees for most overseas students are roughly double the amount paid by home students, and the arrival of students has a significant positive impact on the UK’s economy.
Estimates from the Department of Education indicate that total revenue from international students linked to UK higher education reached £21.7bn in 2021, more than double the amount in 2010, which was £9.53bn.
“Post Brexit, the share of EU students enrolling on UK university courses has rapidly shrunk,” explained Dr Rosina. “In the 2017/2018 academic year, a quarter of total overseas students were from the EU, and this fell to just 8% in the 2021/2022 academic year. This is most likely due to the increased tuition fees that EU students started to pay from the 2021/2022 academic year, when it reached the full ‘international student’ rate. In most cases, this amounted to roughly double the cost of the previous year.”
Dr Filauri highlighted that study-related migration has been largely driven by non-Europeans over the past 3 years, with students from India accounting for most of the UK’s international students.
Last year, 27% of study visas were granted to students from India, 17% were granted to students from China and 17% were granted to students from Nigeria.
“The UK’s points-based system, introduced in mid-2021, saw the introduction of the student graduate visa, which allows recent graduates to live and work in the UK for 2 years after graduation and for 3 years after a PhD,” said Dr Filauri.
“As well as enabling recent graduates to remain in the UK beyond their study visa, the visa also allowed people to have dependents,” he added.
Dr Rosina explained that the main objective of the graduate visa route was to increase the attractiveness of the UK as a destination for study, increasing the number of international students in higher education and therefore contributing to the UK‘s economy.
Since its introduction in mid-2021, the visa has seen a steep and steady rise. In 2021, a total of 28,238 students extended their visas through the route, which rose to 86,964 in 2022 and to 143,884 in 2023.
According to surveys conducted by the Office for Students, the number of international students grew by 61%, between 2017 and 2023, growing from 211,907 in 2017 to 340,990 in 2023. However, it is noticeable that the last year marked a 3.1% decrease in new entrants.
Over the past five years, the share of study visas granted to dependants has also significantly increased. In 2019, study visas issued to dependants accounted for 4% of the total study visa grants (16,047), which rose to 13% in 2021 (134,571), to 22% in 2022 (134,571), and 24% in 2023 (143,595).
“Last December, these figures led the Prime Minister to announce that immigration is too high and that he would be taking radical action to bring it down,” explained Dr Rosina. “This included banning overseas students from bringing their families to the UK, and the scrapping of the dependants’ study visa which came into effect in January this year.”
Irregular migration – small boats and asylum
Last year, the number of small boat arrivals to the UK totalled 29,437, marking a 36% decrease compared to the previous year. “The decline was mainly due to a drop in the number of Albanian migrants, which decreased by 93%,” explained Dr Rosina. “In December 2022, the UK signed a cooperation agreement with Albania, to return irregular migrants who have not applied for asylum, or whose claims were rejected.”
Last year, the primary countries of origin among small boat arrivals were Afghanistan, Iran, Syria, Iraq, and Turkey. Particularly noteworthy is the fact that individuals from the first three of such countries exhibit asylum success rates above the average, with Afghans, Syrians, and Iranians achieving rates of 99%, 98%, and 78%, respectively.
“Against this backdrop, the government has pushed forward its plan to deter irregular migration through the Illegal Migration Act, the UK-Rwanda Treaty, and the Safety of Rwanda Act, attracting sharp criticism by international organisations and civil society, on human rights, legality, and effectiveness grounds,” said Dr Rosina.
“Migration to the UK has significantly grown post-Brexit and it will be interesting to see how the next government tackle it.”
‘New Evidence on Post-Brexit UK Migration Trends’, by Matilde Rosina, Matteo Pazzona and Federico Filauri, was published by Brunel’s Centre for Law, Economics and Finance.
Reported by:
Nadine Palmer,
Media Relations
+44 (0)1895 267090
nadine.palmer@brunel.ac.uk